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美国制裁中兴,中国可以如何报复

How can China retaliate for US's embargo of ZTE

不爱睡觉的猪 2018-05-14 14:03:18 贸易美国中兴
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中兴是中国的5G先驱,中国本来是要在国际上领先5G的,但是在美国的制裁下,中兴现在是一潭死水。为了防止美国再次实施类似的制裁,中国应该如何对这次的制裁作出报复?


正文翻译

How can China retaliate for US's embargo of ZTE

美国制裁中兴,中国可以如何报复

ZTE is China's 5G champion and China was positioned to lead international 5G, but with this ban, ZTE looks like it'll be dead in the water. How can China retaliate against this embargo to prevent future displays of force from the US?

中兴是中国的5G先驱,中国本来是要在国际上领先5G的,但是在美国的制裁下,中兴现在是一潭死水。为了防止美国再次实施类似的制裁,中国应该如何对这次的制裁作出报复?

Some thoughts:

China owns most of the earth's rare earth metals including lithium (used for batteries), silicon (used for CPUs and microprocessors). If China were to completely buy up the rest of the silicon in one fiscal year, then issue an embargo of silicon against the US for "war crimes against Yemen and Palestine", then the US semiconductor industry would be seriously dead in the water.

I don't think there's a way in hell for Tesla to get into the Chinese market at this point. Perhaps less capable EV manufacturers from other countries could be allowed in, but China should not support the US's EV industry.

Similar to how Apple uses the A10 chip in both its smart phones and computers, Huawei can be given money for R&D to start developing Kirin chips for computers as well as smart phones. Right now, I think it's silly that Huawei is being so myopic with their kirin technology. They could have potentially much larger market share if China were to prevent Intel from selling in China.

TSMC in Taiwan makes all the CPUs for Intel, Apple, Qualcomm, Exynos. If TSMC, sometime in the future, were to be prevented from making CPUS for intel and apple and qualcomm, it would not actually hurt TSMC. Because all lost market share of apple, intel, and qualcomm would be taken up by exynos, and exynos CPUs could still be made by TSMC. Or kirin CPUs would take over the market share, and huawei could expand to fill the void.

一些想法:

中国拥有地球上大部分稀土,包括锂(用于电池),硅(用于CPU和微处理器)。如果中国在一个财年内完全买断剩余的硅,然后以"针对也门和巴勒斯坦的战争罪"为由对美国实施硅禁运,那么美国的半导体产业将被瘫痪。

我觉得现在特斯拉是无法进入中国市场了。可能其他国家不那么好的电动汽车厂家会被允许进入中国市场,但是中国不会去支持美国的电动汽车产业。

苹果用A10芯片在自己的智能手机和电脑中,类似的中国也可以给华为拨款以开发麒麟芯片以应用在手机和电脑上。目前华为在麒麟芯片技术上的目光短浅是相当愚蠢的。因为如果中国禁止因特尔在中国销售的话,华为将拥有更大的市场份额。

台湾的台积电为因特尔,苹果,高通以及三星制造所有的芯片。如果未来台积电被禁止为苹果,高通和因特尔提供中央处理器的话,是不会对台积电造成伤害的。因为所失去的苹果,因特尔和高通市场份额将从三星那里得到弥补。或者麒麟芯片将占有市场份额,华为从而可以扩张以填补真空。
 
美国制裁中兴,中国可以如何报复

评论翻译

[-]killingzooChinese [  ] 14

Impose 1000% environmental impact taxes on some targeted companies.

对某些公司征收1000%的环境影响税。

[-]northstar31453[S] [  ] 11

Tesla can kiss china factory goodbye

特斯拉可以和中国工厂说拜拜了。

[-]AsianZ1 [  ] 15

Remove all trademarks and copyrights given to Trump and seize all Trump related assets in China. They do not need to sanction the entirety of the US to make the US hurt, making Trump hurt will be more than enough for China to get its way. The man child in the white House will throw a hissy fit if he finds out a huge portion of his money has been taken away, and then he will come begging for it back.

撤销赋予川普的所有商标和版权,没收川普在中国的所有相关资产。他们没必要制裁整个美国来惩罚美国,只要给川普一点苦头,中国就能实现自己的目标。白宫的那个巨婴在发现自己的大量资金被没收后会痛苦到痉挛的,到时他就会乞求中国归还那些资产的。

[-]hashtagplsTaiwanese 3   1

i was going to suggest US methods of political assassination and death squads but funding domestic companies and eclipsing US global market share is good as well.

我还想说可以借用美国的政治暗杀和杀人小队这种办法呢,但是资助国内企业并且侵蚀美国的全球市场份额也不失为一个好办法。

[-]northstar31453[S] [  ] 11

Maybe let tesla in, then immediately seizing all their assets on "national security" grounds?

Also, if China overwhelmed Iran, Syria, Palestine, Yemen with military equipment and they blew up Saudi Arabia and Israel, what would happen to the USD?

或许可以先让特斯拉进入,然后以"国家安全"为由没收他们所有资产?

此外,如果中国给伊朗,叙利亚和巴勒斯坦提供大量武器装备,然后这些国家炸毁沙特和以色列,那么美元会受到怎样的重创?

[-]sanjugo 2   1

For ZTE, target large markets like India, Africa and eastern Europe where the US don't give a shit and Apple don't make economic sense for anyone. Then China should just make their own semiconductors and be done with it. Just as no one can argue with buying foreign-branded-but-made-in-China products, they'll soon learn to accept Chinese branded products. This of course has started anyway with Haier, Xiaomi, Lenovo, Oppo etc. all leading the way.

对于中兴来说,可以瞄准大型市场,比如印度,非洲和东欧,美国毫不在意这些地方,苹果在这些地方也没有多少份额。然后中国可以生产自己的半导体,这不就好了吗。这些国家的人们很快将学会接受中国品牌。海尔,小米,联想,oppo等都是这么干的,而且处于领先位置。

[-]northstar31453[S] [  ] 11

ZTE can't target any markets since they can't produce anything...

中兴无法瞄准任何市场,因为他们现在无法生产任何东西。。。

[-]Hund-kex 6   1

US has always prioritized semiconductor exports to China, since their massive companies can easily outcompete smaller Chinese ones like TSMC, tsinghua unigroup and Huawei's own. Giving up that advantage is paramount to digging their own graves, at least within the industry.

A rare minerals ban would wreck the US' high tech industry, but it would seriously hurt China's credibility as an industrial power. Everyone will be prioritizing extraction tech once they see China can suddenly cut them off. Winning the trade war would not be worth giving up market shares in what's essentially the oil industry of the electronic age.

China should provide subsidies for local companies to help them eat up the lost US shares before some other company moves in and eats them.

Right now China sits on three "trade nukes" in the form of rare minerals ban, agriculture import ban and US debt recall. US doesn't have any response that's nearly as strong, short of using Chinese Americans as hostages, which might not work if the CPC doesn't see them as citizens.

China should wait until the opportune moment to drop them where they can force maximum concessions and cause as much chaos as possible. The more the stakes get raised, the more potential gain there is. If China dropped now, US might apologize and retract tariffs and return to Obama admin's status quo, which is not really a win. They need them to go deeper into the rabbit hole.

美国一直优先出口半导体到中国,因为美国大企业可以轻易击败中国的小企业,比如台积电,清华紫光和华为的半导体。放弃这个优势相当于自掘坟墓,至少在行业内是如此。

如果中国禁止稀土出口到美国将导致美国高科技产业瘫痪,但是也会严重伤害中国的信誉。各个国家一旦发现中国有实施禁令的倾向,他们自己就会优先发展提取技术。为了赢得贸易战争而失去稀土的市场份额,这是不值得的。

中国应该给自己的企业提供补贴以帮助他们抵消损失了的美国市场份额,以防其他企业进入吃掉他们。

现在中国坐拥三大"贸易核武器",分别是稀土禁令,农产品进口禁令和美国债务召回。美国毫无还手之力,除了可以使用美国华人作为人质外,但这可能不起作用,因为中国可能不视他们为中国公民。

中国应该等待直到时机到来,以获取最大的利益,到时投下这三大武器以尽可能多的产生混乱。风险越高,潜在的收益就越大。如果中国现在就使用自己的杀手锏,美国可能会道歉并收回关税,并回到奥巴马时期的现状,这对中国来说实在算不上是什么大好处。他们需要等待时机。

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免责声明:本文编译自互联网,不代表《歪果仁看中国》的观点和立场。

7条评论

  • wang安乐

    美国人都没讨论到点子上,中国只要学美国那样中断中国大陆的所有厂商对苹果手机,戴尔惠普电脑的供应链支持和服务支持,包括组装厂,那么戴尔惠普苹果就会像中兴那样瞬间瘫痪休克 举报回复

  • 宋婷an

    这次贸易战真正打击中国的是那些买办集团,使中国支持高新核心技术国产化的呼声空前高涨,也许现在我们在很多核心科技上受美国制裁时还没有办法反击,但是突破核心科技在中国已经达成共识。所以这次贸易战不会因为任何还没达成的协议而结束,而是进入持久战,10年、20年都没问题,总之咱们就是和你美国卯上了,早晚干死美国的高科技。

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