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正在阅读:中美贸易大战,谁或成最大输家?

中美贸易大战,谁或成最大输家?

Ina U.S.-China trade war, who has more to lose?

龙腾网/wolface 2018-06-20 15:14:37 中国贸易美国
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近日,美国总统特朗普宣布将对中国出口的铝和钢产品增收关税。作为报复性措施,4月2日,中国宣布向美国128种产品增收进口关税。正当中美两国因贸易问题而脸红争吵时,广大吃瓜群众不禁会问:究竟谁是这场贸易战的最大输家呢?贸易战争将会以何种形式结束呢?

Ina U.S.-China trade war, who has more to lose?

正文翻译

China has more to lose economically inan all-out trade war. The Chinese economy is dependent on exports, and nearly20 percent of its exports go to the United States. It sold $506 billion instuff and services to the United States last year. In contrast, the UnitedStates sold $130 billion to the Chinese.

中国或在经济上成最大输家。众所周知,中国的经济发展非常依赖于出口,而且在中国的总出口份额中,对美出口份额就占到20%。去年,中国共向美国出口了价值5060亿美元的产品和服务。相比之下,美国向中国出口总额仅为1300亿美元。

“In a serious economic battle, the U.S. wins. There is noquestion about it,” said Derek Scissors, a resident scholar atthe American Enterprise Institute who has helped advise the administration onChina.

美国企业研究所常驻学者——史剑道表示“如果会爆发一场激烈的经济战,毫无疑问,美国将会成为赢家。”

But this isn't just an economic fight, it's also political, andthere’s a strong case that President Trump would be less able tosustain a protracted conflict than the Chinese — especially with the 2018midterm elections coming.

但问题是,中美之间的对决不仅仅是经济层面的,更包含了政治考量。很有可能,特朗普总统没有能力和中国打一场持久战——更何况,特朗普马上将要面临2018年中期选举。

Chinese President Xi Jinping runs a communist country that hasjust granted him theability to rule for life. He controls themedia in his country and is also sitting on top of about $3 trillion in surpluscash.

而中国主席治理下的共产主义国家可以轻易实现各方面的调控和管理。中国不仅控制了媒体,还拥有大约3万亿的外汇储备。

All of this means Xi can react quickly to Trump. He caneven aid Chinese companies that get hurt in the coming months andsubsidize soybean prices so Chinese consumers don't face massive sticker shockat the store. The Chinese used similar tactics during the global financialcrisis of 2008 and 2009, spending heavily from their surplus reserves to stimulatetheir economy and insulate their people from pain. The Chinese cashreserves are not as large now, but they still have more than the United Stateshas.

Ina U.S.-China trade war, who has more to lose?

正因如此,中国可以对特朗普的行为进行快速反应。甚至,一旦贸易战爆发,中国可以资助那些受到牵连的中国公司,并向企业提供补贴以控制大豆的价格,从而中国的消费者不会受到大的冲击。此次,中国所采取的策略与其在2008-2009年全球金融危机中的策略类似,他们将大量使用自身的外汇储备来刺激经济发展,使人民免受痛苦。虽然,中国目前的储备不如从前,但是其规模仍然要大于美国。

In2018, “China can withstand much more than the U.S.”

2018年“中国能够比美国承受更多损失”

Trump doesn't have it so easy. He's already getting phone callsfrom Republican lawmakers who are angry at what he's doing with the tariffs. OnThursday evening, GOP Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska accused the president ofhaving "no actual plan to win right now"and "threatening to light American agriculture on fire."

特朗普想要赢得和中国的贸易战可没这么容易。他的手机早已被共和党议员打爆了,这些议员对特朗普的关税政策表达了异常的愤怒。周四晚上,内布拉斯加州的共和党参议员本·萨斯指责特朗普,说“特朗普根本无法提供速胜的计划,而他这一玩火行为要把美国农业都给烧了。”

Trump faces backlash from Wall Street, fromexecutives of companies such as Boeing and from soybeanfarmers in the Midwest, many of whom votedfor Trump and feel betrayed. Some GOP leaders fear Trump's actionscould costthe party seats in the 2018 midtermelections.

不仅如此,特朗普也受到了国内势力的强烈抵制,包括华尔街、波音等公司的高管以及美国中西部的大豆农民,这些人曾投票支持特朗普,但现在他们感觉自己被队友卖了。一些共和党领导人担忧,特朗普的行为可能会让他们在2018年中期选举中丢掉自己的政党席位。

“Within the next 12 months, China can withstand much more thanthe U.S. can withstand,” said Evan Medeiros, managing director atthe Eurasia Group and a former senior adviser to President Barack Obama onAsia. “The Chinese aren't constrained by the rule of law or a representativedemocracy.”

欧亚集团董事总经理、前奥巴马政府亚洲事务最高顾问麦艾文说“在未来一年中,中国可以比美国承受更多的损失,因为中国可不会受到代议民主制的限制。”

While much of the focus so far has been on tariffs — Trump hasthreatened to put tariffs on about $150 billion worth of Chinese goods andservices, and China has respondedso far with threats of tariffs on $50 billion of U.S. goods — China has more levers it can pull to punish the UnitedStates.

虽然大家都在关注关税增收问题——即特朗普威胁向中国价值1500亿美元的产品和服务增收关税,而中国目前也威胁向美国价值500亿美元产品增收关税——但实际上,中国手中有更多的牌可以用来惩罚美国。

The Chinese could stop cooperating on North Korea, theycould sell some U.S. debt to roil markets and they could make life harderfor U.S. companies operating in China, such as Nike, Disney or Apple.These Chinese actions are seen as unlikely, especially selling U.S. Treasurys.For the Trump administration, corresponding moves aren't even on the table,as the U.S. government doesn't have as much direct control over companiesoperating within its borders.

作为反击,中国可以拒绝与美国在朝鲜问题上进行合作,他们可以出售美国债务来扰乱美国市场,甚至给中国大陆的美国企业下绊子,比如耐克、迪士尼或苹果公司。不过,这些中国的反击可能不会发生,尤其是出售美国债券。而对于特朗普政府,他们甚至没有可以拿的上台面的反击措施,因为,他们对国内的企业并没有足够的直接控制。

Trump is in a tricky situation. He has long argued the U.S. isalready in a trade war with China and that the U.S. has been getting attackedfor years. He appears ready for a fight. As his press secretary SarahHuckabee Sanders said Wednesday, "We may have a little bit ofshort-term pain, but we're certainly going to have long-term success."

Ina U.S.-China trade war, who has more to lose?

更糟的是,特朗普在国内正面临另外一个棘手的局面。他一直在美国称,美国早已和中国开启贸易战了,而且美国已经被攻击多年。似乎,他已经为贸易战准备好了。新闻发言人萨拉·赫卡比·桑德斯周四称:“我们可能会在遭受短期的阵痛,但最终我们一定会获得胜利。”

He is also feeling confident after his administration renegotiatedthe South Korean free-trade deal togive U.S. automakers greater access to that market. But South Korea is theworld's No. 11 economy, and the country depends on the United States formilitary aid. China is the No. 2 economy, and it does not feel the same degreeof pressure to give in to Trump.

韩国自由贸易协定重新谈判后,特朗普有信心让美国汽车制造商获取韩国市场的更多份额。但需要注意的是,韩国仅为世界上规模排名第十一的经济体,而且这个国家极度依赖于美国的军事援助。相比下,中国为世界上规模第二的经济体,她可不会轻易地向特朗普屈服。

Domestically, Chinese politicians face pressure to project theircountry as a world power, making rolling over for a bellicose U.S. president awildly unpopular proposal.

而在中国国内,政治家们受到公众的压力,需要将国家打造成世界强国的形象。当他们遇到好战的美国总统特朗普,双方势必会发生冲突。

“There is no way on earth China can be seen to be kowtowing tothe U.S. on this. Xi cannot say: All right, Trump threatened us, so we'dbetter give in,” said Phil Levy, a senior fellow at the Chicago Council onGlobal Affairs.

芝加哥全球事务委员会高级研究员——菲尔·列维表示“在贸易战这方面,中国无论如何都不会向美国屈服”。中国国家主席不可能说“好吧,既然特朗普威胁了我们,我们就投降吧。”

Chinastrikes back at Trump's political vulnerabilities

中国抓住特朗普的政治短板进行反击

The surprisingly swift and strong reaction from China this weekseemed to be a message to Trump that the Chinese think they can play a longgame.

而本周中国的快速且强烈的反应则向特朗普传达了一个消息,中国人认为他们能够和美国打一场持久战。

Trump has now threatened just over $150 billion in tariffs --or, to put it another way, he's threatened taxes on about 30 percent of thegoods and services the Chinese sell to the United States. It's unlikelyto damage the overall economy significantly,but it's getting to the point where American consumers are likely to facehigher prices on televisions, shoes, clothes and possibly even iPhones.

如今,特朗普威胁向价值1500亿美元的中国产品增收进口关税——或者说,特朗普威胁,向中国出售给美国30%的产品和服务中征收进口关税。也就是说,这不会对总体经济产生太大的破坏。但是,美国的消费者们可能会遇到更高的物价了,包括电视、鞋子、衣物甚至苹果手机。

And certain places in America are about to feel great pain ifthe Chinese follow through with their threats to retaliate. It's hard forfarmers and winemakers to understand why they are casualties in a supposedfight against China stealing intellectual property and industrial know-how.

而一旦中国将报复进行到底,美国的一些地方可能会遭受更大的损失和痛苦。当美国与中国因偷窃知识产权和技术而进行相互攻击时,一些农民和酒商们会一脸懵逼,完全不清楚为何自己会成为这场冲突的牺牲者。

The Brookings Institution looked at all the products China hasthreatened to put tariffs on so far. They would affect about 2.1 million jobsthat are spread across 2,783 U.S. counties. Eighty-two percent of thosecounties voted for Trump in the last presidential election.

通过研究中国将增收进口关税的所有产品,布鲁金斯研究所发现:中国的反击行为将会影响美国2783个郡县中一共210万个职业岗位,而其中,有82%的人群在上次选举中投票给特朗普。

“Xi is probably doing a more rationale analysis of the situationthan the Trump administration seems to be doing,” said J. Stapleton Roy,who was U.S. ambassador to China under presidents George H.W. Bush and BillClinton. “The Trump administration doesn't seem to grasp the fact that they aredamaging the wrong people (the farmers)” in this fight.

美国前总统布什和克林顿政府时期的前美国驻华大使芮效俭说“很显然,中国对于形式的分析要比特朗普政府要更加充分。特朗普政府根本没有发现,在这次攻击中,他们误伤了自己人(农民)。”

Whatdoes “winning” look like?

“胜利”的形式?

A key problem for Trump is that he doesn't have clearand coherent demands of China. He and his team talk about three problems: thetrade deficit, Chinese intellectual property (IP) theft, and China's industrialpolicy (known as “Made in China 2025”).

作为最关键的问题,特朗普对于中国根本没有一个清晰的诉求。特朗普和团队一直以来都在讨论三个问题:贸易逆差、中国窃取知识产权和中国工业政策(也就是“中国制造2025”).

But there's no specific request, and the lack ofone is allowing the Chinese to play the victims in a scenario where theUnited States is supposed to be trying to correct years of wrongs.

但是,特朗普并没有提出具体的要求,正因如此,这使得中国可以扮演一个受害者的角色。特朗普政府应该努力改正多年的错误。

“I want the U.S. to do more against China, but I want theU.S. to do more with a plan,” Scissors said. “We need veryspecific asks of the Chinese. Instead, we just say, ‘we want you to change.’ ”

斯萨斯说“我希望美国可以和中国进行更多的对抗,而对日本则建立更多的合作。我们需要对中国提出更加明确具体的需求,而不是仅仅要求其进行改变。”

The president and his team sometimes say different things abouttrade and what the goals are. Trump likes to use confusion as a negotiatingtactic, but it also opens up more ways to “win.”

甚至,有时候总统特朗普和他的管理团队对于贸易和目标存在很大分歧。特朗普经常会迷惑对手来作为谈判策略,但这种方法可以有更多机会取得胜利。

“Trump can probably be bought off withsome package of goods to reduce the trade deficit. His advisers want China torewrite its entire industrial policy,” Medeiros said.

“特朗普很可能会说服中国购买一些美国产品来减少贸易赤字。而他的顾问则希望中国能够改变自身的产业政策。”

Whatthe endgame looks like

结局会是什么样子?

Trump has famously said a trade war will be “easy to win.” Xiisn't saying that. Xi has made it clear he doesn't want a trade war, but hewill respond to anything Trump does. Xi seems to be setting himself up for aneasier political win if anything goes sour on the economic front.

特朗普曾说过,赢得贸易战是件极其容易的事情。而中国国家主席却从未说过这种话。中国明确表示自己不想要卷入贸易战,但是对于特朗普的挑衅会做出回应。一旦在经济方面出现问题,中国都试图在赢得政治上的胜利。

But in politics, Trump has proved himself a skillful salesman.Many strategists and longtime foreign policy experts say the most likelyscenario is Trump gets a few small concessions from China and declares victory.

但是,在政治方面,特朗普是一个老练的商人。正如很多战略家和对外顾问专家所言,最可能产生的结果就是,特朗普从中国得到了小范围的让步,然后就和大家宣布自己取得了胜利。

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said last week that China is preparedto ease market access for U.S. companies and stop forcing foreign companies totransfer technology. If Trump gets those kinds of concessions in writing,he would be able to say he did more for America against China than Obama,Bush or Clinton.

上周,中国国务院总理表示,将为美国企业进入中国市场提供便利,并会停止强迫国外企业向中国转移技术这一行为。如果特朗普实实在在地得到了这种让步,那么他肯定会宣称,在对抗中国方面,自己比奥巴马、布什或克林顿获得的成绩更多。

But those changes would do little to alter the recordU.S. trade deficit with China or to deter China from plans to gohead-to-head with the United States in many high-tech sectors soon. If Trumpwants those major concessions, he has to be ready to go much harder against theChinese.

但是,这些变化在改变美国贸易赤字,或者阻止中国在高端科技领域与美国竞争方面收效甚微。如果特朗普想要中国做出重大让步,他不得不加强对中国的攻击。

So far, Xi appears to be betting that Trump will cave topolitical pressure before that happens.

但是直到目前,中国所下的赌注就是,在以上事情发生前,特朗普会因为政治压力而向中国屈服。

【评论】

a granny in sd

I truly hope the trade war takes off so those Dump voters in thesoy and pork producing states get to enjoy their darling prez. I want to seehim go on his road show after 6 months of the Chinese tariffs.

哈,我真的希望贸易战赶紧开始,那样,特朗普的大豆农民和猪肉卖家们很快就会享受到他们这可爱的总统带给他们的“福利”了。我特别期待,在和中国打贸易战的半年后,他是如何在接头巡回演出中来安抚这些选民的。

Kay+El

"Many strategists and longtime foreign policy experts say themost likely scenario is Trump gets a few small concessions from China anddeclares victory" I guess it is time to eye some stocks that may gain fromthe concessions, they must be in their low points now and soon to soar.

“正如很多战略家和对外顾问专家所言,最可能产生的结果就是,特朗普从中国得到了小范围的让步,然后就和大家宣布自己取得了胜利。”我觉得,是时候该关注那些可以从中国让步中获利的股票了,这些股票现在肯定是在低位,很快就会暴涨的。

unfit-to-be-prez

How many among us are those of us who discuss 'trade deficits','made-in China' , 'theft of IP' and are willing people who throng to theWalmarts, Home-Depots, and such to buy 'made-in-China' productsbecause of one reason or another? How many talk about 'debt' but are unwillingto sacrifice and spend more on 'buy American' for products made in America?

我很好奇,我们中这些热衷于讨论“贸易赤字”、“中国制造”和“盗窃知识产权”的人中,有多少因为价美物廉而喜欢涌入沃尔玛超市和家得宝去抢购中国造产品呢?而那些热衷于讨论“债务”的人们,又有多少人愿意做出牺牲并花更多的钱去购买美国制造产品呢?

antilepton

The US shot itself in the foot when US manufacturers were allowedto take business (and jobs) to foreign soil where labor was cheaper. Now the USshoots itself in the other foot by levying tariffs against the countries thatmanufacture so much of what American consumers have come to rely upon. Is therea silver lining in all this? Perhaps the next generation will grow up lessmaterialistic and more appreciative of the rewards to be had from hard work.Because for the 'other 99%' there are a lot of hard times ahead.

当美国政府允许美国企业到外国做生意(制造就业)并寻求更加廉价劳动力时,美国就注定会搬起石头砸自己的脚。而现在,美国政府却要向那些美国消费者极度依赖的国家和制造商增收关税,美国会再次搬起石头砸自己的脚。我们能够在这对抗中看到一丝胜利的希望吗?也许,只有我们的下一代才会摈弃金钱至上,并重新开始重视努力工作来获取回报。对于国内“占99%的人民”而言,未来将会有很多的艰难日子要过了。

091639

While I share the concern about a possible trade war, we can`tkeep ignoring a 300+ billion dollar trade deficit with China, I can`t help butadmire the Presidents willingness to take on the issues he was elected topursue. Previous administrations loaded with egg heads, fresh from think tanksurged caution as their brilliance saw all possible negative effects of policychange. The result to often was "don`t just do something, standthere". President Trump, I am sure,is under the same type of pressure butso far he seem`s to be willing to accept some short term pain for long termbenefit. Our greatest Presidents were men of action and trusted their instinctswhen making difficult choices. Presidents Lincoln, Truman and Reagan come tomind. President Trump so far has made good progress in many areas. I am hopinghis position on trade will be for the better. I find it disturbing that so manyin this country, and certainly the media ,seem to root for his failure onvirtually every position he takes, shame!

当我们对潜在的贸易战表示担忧时,我们同样不能忽视一个事实,那就是我们的确和中国存在3000亿美元的贸易赤字。我不禁要敬佩我们的总统,他的确是为了完成竞选时所许诺的任务。上一届政府里都是书呆子,都是刚从智库里毕业的新人,他们所担心的,都是政策改变所导致的不利结果。所以,他们最后只能“搁置争议”。而我们的特朗普总统,我确定,同样承受着这种巨大压力,但是,他现在仍然勇于面对短期的阵痛而去追寻长期的利益。美国最伟大的总统,一定是行动派,而且敢于在面对艰难抉择时相信自己的直觉,比如我们的林肯、杜鲁门和里根。现在,特朗普已经推动了很多领域的发展。我希望,在他的任期呢,贸易战将会向好的方向发展。但令人不安的是,在这个国家,尤其是媒体行业,都在不遗余力地反对特朗普的所有举措,妄图要让他失败,真是可耻啊!

本文来源:https://www.washingtonpost.com

免责声明:本文编译自互联网,不代表《歪果仁看中国》的观点和立场。

6条评论

  • 如天使般守护你

    不看好中国 美国一纸禁令 不卖中国芯片 中国马上就会崩溃

  • 好好生活的可

    然后高通股票暴跌,荷兰、三星、台积电要笑醒。失去了中国这2700亿美元的芯片市场,高通恐怕连迭代的能力都没了,国内芯片企业迎来春天,然后三星台积电瓜分高通份额,美国成功的干死了自己的高科技企业

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